Hindsight Bias in Clinical Temporal Reasoning: How Future Data Exposure Affects Large Language Model Judgment
Uncovering how retrospective clinical data biases LLM performance in prospective medical reasoning.
Clinical decisions are prospective, but clinical language models are often evaluated on retrospective records that reveal the final diagnosis, treatment response, and outcome. Such evaluations may reward the use of future information rather than reasoning under the uncertainty pr...
ArXiv CS.CL
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Evaluating medical AI on retrospective data inadvertently rewards models for using information that clinicians would not have possessed at the point of care. This research highlights a critical flaw in current benchmarks that could lead to dangerous overestimations of model reliability in real-world diagnostic workflows.
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